A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
