Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.
On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.
“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.
China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.
That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.
Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.
An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.
In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.
Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.
Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.
Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.
China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.
Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.
Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.
In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.
Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.
Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.
“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”
The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.
Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.
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